O's edge Royals in 11 innings

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ty Wigginton hit two sacrifice fly balls, including the game-winner in the 11th, helping the Baltimore Orioles snap a five-game losing streak with a 6-5 win over the Kansas City Royals.

Nick Markakis and Corey Patterson both homered for Baltimore, which announced on Thursday that Buck Showalter will take over as manager next week. Brian Roberts went 2-for-6 and scored twice in the win.

Brian Matusz continued his struggles, allowing five runs in 3 1/3 innings, but was spared the losing decision. David Hernandez (5-7) pitched two scoreless innings for the win, and Alfredo Simon earned his 15th save.

Yuniesky Betancourt had two hits and drove in a run for the Royals, who saw their losing streak reach five. Jason Kendall and Rick Ankiel each added two hits in the loss.

Kyle Davies yielded four runs (three earned) in a 5 2/3-inning start, walking four and fanning three.

With Blake Wood (0-2) beginning his second inning of work in the 11th, Cesar Izturis worked a leadoff walk and moved to third on Roberts' single to right.

Markakis sent a ground ball to second, but Mike Aviles was able to throw out Izturis trying to score. Izturis remained in a rundown long enough for Roberts to gain third base, and he scored on Wigginton's deep fly ball to left.

Simon came on to save the game, but yielded a leadoff single to Aviles, who was quickly erased on Ankiel's double play groundout. Betancourt kept the game alive with a base hit, but Alex Gordon lined out to first to end the game.

The Orioles scored single runs in each of the first three innings to build a lead.

Roberts led off the game with a double and later scored on Wigginton's sacrifice fly in the first, and Izturis' RBI fielder's choice groundout doubled the lead in the second.

Markakis led off the third with a homer before the Royals stormed back with five runs in the fourth.

Matusz quickly allowed the bases to become loaded on a pair of walks and a double to start the inning, and he issued another walk to Wilson Betemit to force home KC's first run. Aviles followed with a sacrifice fly before Ankiel's single again loaded the bases.

Mark Hendrickson came in from the bullpen to protect the 3-2 lead, but Betancourt greeted him with an RBI single. Betemit also scored on the play on an error in the outfield, and Gordon followed with another run-scoring hit for a 5-3 contest.

Baltimore, though, came back to tie the game.

In the sixth, Felix Pie walked with one away and moved to third on an error by Betancourt. Patterson followed with an RBI fielder's choice groundout to cut the Orioles' deficit to one.

Patterson evened the contest in the eighth with a two-out solo blast off Robinson Tejeda.

Game Notes

The Orioles also made a roster shakeup on Thursday, trading third baseman Miguel Tejada to San Diego in exchange for a minor league pitcher...The Orioles lead the season series, 2-1...Kansas City had won each of Davies' last four outings...Showalter will take over on Monday and manage his first game on Tuesday.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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