International Bowl sends Bulls and Huskies north of the border

NCAA Football Betting Lines

01/02/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the fifth straight season the South Florida Bulls will participate in a bowl game when they take on the Northern Illinois Huskies in the International Bowl at the Rogers Centre.

The Bulls have been a part of the BCS for five seasons, and all five years the team has made it to a bowl game, including this season. The four previous postseason appearances for South Florida were split evenly at 2-2, and obviously that includes the team's 41-14 romp over Memphis last season in the St. Petersburg bowl. The Bulls charged out of the gates this season, winning their first five matchups, including a 17-7 decision on the road against Florida State. However, the team started to show cracks in the armor and finished out the year with five setbacks in its last seven games.

The Huskies opened this season with a tough, 28-20 loss to Wisconsin, but the team rebounded with wins in three of its next four contests, including an impressive 28-21 victory at Purdue. After a one-point loss to Toledo, the Huskies regrouped and racked up four consecutive victories. However, the team stumbled down the stretch, dropping its last two regular season contests against Ohio (38-31) and Central Michigan (45-31). Despite the late collapse the Huskies finished 7-5 overall and were invited to their second straight bowl game and third in the last four seasons. Unfortunately the team suffered losses in their past two bowls games, including a 17-10 loss to Louisiana Tech in last season's Independence Bowl.

The all-time series between the two schools on the gridiron is tied at 1-1. The last time NIU and South Florida collided was in 2002 when the Bulls grabbed a convincing, 37-6 decision over the Huskies.

The Bulls are not overwhelming offensively, but the team does possess a well balanced attack which has led to a respectable 26.4 ppg. The ground game is churning out 169.4 ypg, but the team's top performer on the ground is quarterback B.J. Daniels, who has rushed for 798 yards and nine scores on 4.9 yards per attempt. Daniels took over for star QB Matt Grothe, who went down with a knee injury early on. Daniels received help in the backfield by Moise Plancher and Mike Ford, who combined for 813 rushing yards and both players scored five touchdowns apiece on the year. Daniels was not as impressive with his arm, completing just 52.7 percent of his throws for 1,766 yards and 12 touchdowns against nine interceptions. There was not a single player on the roster with over 35 receptions, which further proves the inconsistency of the passing attack. Carlton Mitchell led the way for South Florida with 34 receptions and finished the year with 612 yards and four touchdowns. Dontavia Bogan also collected four touchdown receptions, but finished the season with just 305 yards on 22 catches.

The reason the Bulls are playing in a bowl game this season is largely due to the performance of the defense, which is limiting opponents to just 21.2 ppg. South Florida did have minor problems against the run, allowing 137.8 ypg on the season, but this unit really enjoyed success against the pass, holding teams to just 191.0 ypg through the air. South Florida also collected 12 interceptions on the season, and also put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, grabbing 24 sacks on the year. The Bulls also stepped up their efforts when it mattered most, as the team held opponents to just 40 percent on third down attempts and allowed just 20 touchdowns on 40 red zone chances. There are plenty of playmakers on this side of the football for South Florida, beginning with Kion Wilson, who led the team with 98 tackles. Nate Allen added 79 stops and collected a team-high four interceptions, while Jason Pierre- Paul led the squad with 14.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. Former All-American rush end George Selvie (40 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks) has had a quiet year, but must also be accounted for up front at all times.

The Huskies have a simple game plan on offense and that is to run the ball early and often. Northern Illinois relied heavily throughout the season on its ground attack, rushing for 202.4 ypg on 4.9 yards per attempt. The Huskies, who are averaging an impressive 30.8 ppg on the season, scored 27 of their 41 offensive touchdowns on the ground this season. Me'co Brown started the season has the main tailback for NIU, and rushed for 645 yards and four scores, but eventually he had to make way for Chad Spann, who closed out the regular season with 945 yards and 19 touchdowns. The success of the ground game overshadowed the team's inability to find production through the air, as Northern Illinois posted just 151.7 ypg via the pass. Chandler Harnish has completed an impressive 66.2 percent of his throws, but it has gone for just 1,540 yards and 11 scores against five interceptions. There is not a game- changing receiver on the roster for NIU, but when Harnish needs a big play he usually looks towards Landon Cox, who led the team with 44 receptions, 528 yards and four scores.

Often overlooked due to the success of the NIU offense, is the play of the defense, which held the opposition to just 21.2 ppg on the season. Northern Illinois was very stingy against the run all season, holding teams to just 119.0 ypg on 3.7 yards per attempt. However, not everything was easy for this unit, as the Huskies did have some issues against the pass, allowing 204.6 ypg and 16 touchdowns via the pass. While the team has trouble stopping the pass, the defense for NIU had no problems getting to the quarterback, as the Huskies recorded 29 sacks on the season. Seven and a half of those sacks came from Jake Coffman, who also grabbed 12.5 TFLs on the year. Brandon Bice and Sean Progar added five sacks apiece on the season, while Tracy Wilson led the team with 86 tackles.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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